Why Birkenstock Holding (BIRK) Is Down 6.5% After Strong 2025 Earnings But Cautious 2026 Outlook

• Birkenstock Holding plc recently reported fourth-quarter 2025 results with sales of €526.34 million and net income of €93.87 million, capping a fiscal year in which revenue reached €2.10 billion and net income climbed to €348.33 million.
• Alongside this strong performance, the company issued more cautious fiscal 2026 guidance, pointing to slower expected revenue growth, tariff-related margin pressure, and production capacity limits despite plans to open about 40 new own-retail stores and repurchase up to US$200 million of shares.
• Next, we’ll explore how Birkenstock’s robust 2025 earnings but slower 2026 growth outlook shape its investment narrative for investors.

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What Is Birkenstock Holding's Investment Narrative?

To own Birkenstock, you have to believe in a durable global brand that can keep turning strong consumer demand into consistent growth, even when its own production capacity and external factors get in the way. The latest results reinforce that core story: record 2025 revenue and profit, broad-based demand, and expansion into new stores and regions. At the same time, the softer 2026 guidance brings the near-term focus squarely onto margins, tariffs, FX and how quickly new factories and stores can be brought online. That shift matters for short-term catalysts, because it tilts attention from “how fast can they grow” to “how efficiently can they grow.” The share buyback and planned 40 new stores support the long-term case, but execution risks around capacity and tariffs just became more central.

However, there is one emerging risk that recent guidance brought into much sharper focus. Despite retreating, Birkenstock Holding's shares might still be trading 12% above their fair value. Discover the potential downside here.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Five fair value views from the Simply Wall St Community span roughly €48 to nearly €68, underscoring how differently people are sizing up Birkenstock just as tariff and capacity headwinds move to center stage. This spread of opinions invites you to weigh how much those near term pressures might affect the company’s ability to convert strong brand demand into future earnings power.

Explore 5 other fair value estimates on Birkenstock Holding - why the stock might be worth just $48.37!

Build Your Own Birkenstock Holding Narrative

Disagree with this assessment? Create your own narrative in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Birkenstock Holding research is our analysis highlighting 5 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Birkenstock Holding research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Birkenstock Holding's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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