Moderna (MRNA): Valuation Check After CEPI Backs Phase 3 Trial for Its mRNA Bird Flu Vaccine

Moderna (MRNA) just saw its shares climb after CEPI agreed to provide up to $54.3 million to support advancing its H5 bird flu vaccine, mRNA-1018, into a pivotal Phase 3 trial.

See our latest analysis for Moderna.

The CEPI funding has turbocharged what was already a sharp rebound, with a 30 day share price return of 51.16 percent and a 90 day share price return of 33.91 percent. However, the one year total shareholder return of negative 14.19 percent shows investors are still in recovery mode after a brutal three year total shareholder return of negative 83.02 percent.

If Moderna’s turnaround story has you watching vaccine and biotech names more closely, it is worth exploring other healthcare stocks that could benefit from similar tailwinds.

With the stock still trading below analyst targets despite rebounding hard, investors now have to decide if Moderna’s mRNA pipeline and CEPI backed bird flu catalyst are still underappreciated, or if the market is already pricing in that future growth.

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 5.5% Undervalued

Compared to Moderna’s last close at $33.80, the most followed narrative’s fair value of $35.78 points to modest upside and a still rebuilding story.

The analysts have a consensus price target of $44.25 for Moderna based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $198.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $15.0.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see how modest revenue growth, a sharp profit swing, and a rich future earnings multiple can still add up to upside? Potentially surprising.

Result: Fair Value of $35.78 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, lingering litigation over Moderna’s mRNA platform and a deeper than expected Covid and respiratory vaccine slowdown could quickly undermine the current upside thesis.

Find out about the key risks to this Moderna narrative.

Build Your Own Moderna Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to stress test your own assumptions using the same data, you can build a custom view in minutes. Do it your way

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward investors are optimistic about regarding Moderna.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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