Monogatari (TSE:3097): Assessing Valuation After November 2025 Sales Show Continued Growth

Monogatari (TSE:3097) just posted unaudited November sales with net sales at 116% of last year, up from 113%. This signals sustained momentum across its restaurant brands that traders are starting to pay closer attention to.

See our latest analysis for Monogatari.

That steady uplift in monthly sales comes as Monogatari’s share price has climbed to ¥4,500, with a 1 month share price return of 7.53 percent and a robust 3 year total shareholder return of 121.45 percent, suggesting momentum is still building.

If Monogatari’s trajectory has caught your eye, this could be a good moment to broaden the search and uncover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

With sales still accelerating and the share price sitting about 16 percent below analyst targets, the key question now is whether Monogatari remains undervalued or if the market is already pricing in future growth.

Price-to-Earnings of 25.6x: Is it justified?

Monogatari trades on a price-to-earnings ratio of 25.6x at a last close of ¥4,500, sitting at a premium to hospitality peers and its own fair multiple.

The price-to-earnings ratio compares the current share price to the company’s earnings per share. This can be a useful lens for a mature, profit-generating restaurant chain like Monogatari.

In this case, the stock looks expensive versus the broader JP Hospitality industry average of 23.1x, and also above the estimated fair price-to-earnings ratio of 24.1x, which implies the market is paying a higher price for its strong profit growth and high-quality earnings.

Compared with its direct peer set, however, Monogatari’s 25.6x multiple looks restrained. Peers on average trade at 53x earnings, highlighting a stark gap that could narrow if its faster-than-market growth continues.

Explore the SWS fair ratio for Monogatari

Result: Price-to-Earnings of 25.6x (OVERVALUED)

However, restaurant demand is cyclical, and any slowdown in consumer spending or intensifying competition across yakiniku and ramen chains could quickly compress Monogatari’s premium multiple.

Find out about the key risks to this Monogatari narrative.

Another View: DCF Points to Modest Overvaluation

Our DCF model puts fair value for Monogatari at about ¥4,146, below today’s ¥4,500 price. This suggests the shares are modestly overvalued despite strong growth. If cash flows are already largely priced in, how much upside is really left for new buyers?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Monogatari for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 914 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own Monogatari Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to dive deeper into the numbers yourself, you can build a personalised narrative in just minutes: Do it your way.

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Monogatari.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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