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To own Chubb, you need to believe in its ability to compound value through disciplined underwriting and expanding international franchises, particularly in higher growth regions. The new leadership appointments in global property and Asia Pacific look incremental rather than transformative to near term catalysts, which still hinge on sustaining underwriting quality while managing rising catastrophe and litigation costs. The biggest risk remains earnings volatility from catastrophes and social inflation, which could compress margins even if premium growth holds up.
The appointment of Aaron Shead to lead Chubb Overseas General’s property portfolios ties directly into the international growth story that many investors watch closely. His remit across fire, terrorism, power and energy sits at the heart of Chubb’s complex commercial risk book, where pricing pressure and catastrophe exposure intersect with its underwriting discipline and use of analytics, and where even small shifts in risk selection or loss trends can influence earnings resilience.
Yet investors should also weigh how rising catastrophe losses and social inflation could test even a well regarded underwriting culture...
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Chubb's narrative projects $49.6 billion revenue and $9.8 billion earnings by 2028. This requires a 4.8% yearly revenue decline and a $0.6 billion earnings increase from $9.2 billion today.
Uncover how Chubb's forecasts yield a $311.09 fair value, in line with its current price.
Seven members of the Simply Wall St Community currently estimate Chubb’s fair value between about US$247 and US$637 per share, reflecting a wide spread of expectations. Against that backdrop, Chubb’s push into international property and Asia Pacific leadership raises important questions about how much execution in higher risk regions might influence future profitability and valuation.
Explore 7 other fair value estimates on Chubb - why the stock might be worth 20% less than the current price!
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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