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    Sable Offshore (SOC) Is Up 26.3% After Federal Reclassification Eases California Regulatory Frictions

    Simply Wall St·12/20/2025 06:17:21
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    • Earlier this month, Sable Offshore Corp. closed a US$254.55 million shelf registration for 45,454,546 common shares, shortly after U.S. regulators confirmed that its Las Flores pipeline system connecting the Santa Ynez Unit to the Pentland Station terminal is an active interstate facility under exclusive federal oversight.
    • This shift of regulatory authority from California to federal agencies marks a material change in Sable Offshore’s operating landscape, potentially easing long-running permitting and compliance frictions tied to its offshore California assets.
    • We will now examine how the federal reclassification of Sable Offshore’s interstate pipeline system reshapes its investment narrative and risk profile.

    Trump has pledged to "unleash" American oil and gas and these 22 US stocks have developments that are poised to benefit.

    What Is Sable Offshore's Investment Narrative?

    To own Sable Offshore, you have to believe that its stranded California barrels can be turned into actual cash flow before the balance sheet or legal risks catch up. The PHMSA decision confirming the Las Flores system as an active interstate pipeline meaningfully reshapes that bet: it lifts a major state-level roadblock and has clearly reset short term sentiment, as shown by the sharp share price move and follow-on US$254.55 million shelf registration. Near term, the key catalysts now skew toward federal permitting progress, clarity on timing of first hydrocarbon sales under the amended 15% term loan, and how quickly new leadership can execute. Against that, investors still face zero revenue, heavy ongoing losses, dilution from recent equity raises, and an unresolved class action over past disclosures.

    Yet the class action over alleged misstatements still hangs over the story and deserves attention.

    Our comprehensive valuation report raises the possibility that Sable Offshore is priced higher than what may be justified by its financials.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    SOC 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    SOC 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Five Simply Wall St Community valuations span roughly US$10.52 to over US$105 per share, showing how far apart private investors can be on Sable Offshore’s prospects. Set that against a business with no current revenue, tightening debt terms and a regulatory win that may accelerate its next set of execution tests, and you can see why it pays to compare multiple views before deciding where you stand.

    Explore 5 other fair value estimates on Sable Offshore - why the stock might be a potential multi-bagger!

    Build Your Own Sable Offshore Narrative

    Disagree with this assessment? Create your own narrative in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.