Reassessing BlackRock (BLK) Valuation After Its Recent Outperformance vs. the Broader Market

BlackRock (BLK) has quietly outperformed the broader market over the past month, and that move looks more interesting once you line it up against the stock’s mixed near term and past 3 months returns.

See our latest analysis for BlackRock.

Zooming out, BlackRock’s 4.2 percent year to date share price return and mid single digit 1 year total shareholder return suggest solid but not explosive momentum after a weaker 3 month patch, with long term holders still well ahead.

If BlackRock’s steady climb has you thinking about where else capital might compound, this is a good moment to explore fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

Given BlackRock’s strong multi year compounding, healthy double digit earnings growth, and a share price still sitting well below consensus targets, is this a mispriced compounding machine, or is the market already baking in the next leg of growth?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 19.6% Undervalued

With BlackRock last closing at $1,060.17 against a narrative fair value near $1,319, the valuation case leans heavily on future earnings power and mix shift.

The company's global platform and targeted expansion in emerging markets (e.g., India and Middle East) align with the continued growth in global wealth and the investable asset base, supporting AUM growth and future fee accretion as capital markets and retirement systems develop in these regions. BlackRock's deepening integration of technology via Aladdin, Preqin, and eFront responds to increasing demand for analytics and transparency, strengthening client retention and cross sell opportunities, which should support recurring revenue growth and margin resilience.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see how steady double digit growth, expanding margins, and a lower future earnings multiple combine into that higher fair value? The narrative breaks down the specific revenue runway, margin lift, and profit scaling that need to hold up for this valuation to stick.

Result: Fair Value of $1,319.27 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent fee compression and execution risks around large AI data center and private markets investments could easily challenge this upbeat valuation narrative.

Find out about the key risks to this BlackRock narrative.

Another Way to Look at Value

Step away from the narrative of fair value and BlackRock suddenly looks pricey. At 27 times earnings versus a 25.1 times industry average and a fair ratio of 19.5 times, the stock carries a meaningful valuation premium, raising the question: how much optimism is already priced in?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own BlackRock Narrative

If you would rather challenge these assumptions and analyze the numbers on your own, you can build a custom view in minutes, Do it your way.

A great starting point for your BlackRock research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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