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To own China Hongqiao today, you have to believe its strong profitability, high returns on equity and consistent dividends can be sustained in a cyclical aluminium market, even if revenue growth looks modest. The recent inclusion in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index mostly affects sentiment and liquidity rather than the fundamentals that really matter in the near term, such as aluminium prices, raw material costs and the company’s execution on volume growth. That index change may keep trading activity elevated after a very large share price run, but it does not remove key risks around earnings cyclicality, capital intensity or potential dilution after the recent HK$11.68 billion follow on offering. In other words, the investment story has become more visible, not necessarily safer.
However, stronger index visibility also raises the stakes if aluminium markets turn against Hongqiao.Explore 3 other fair value estimates on China Hongqiao Group - why the stock might be worth as much as 44% more than the current price!
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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