The Limits of Geopolitical Support for Oil Prices

WTI crude futures are trading around $55.81 through Thursday’s close, down 2.60% for the week with one session left. Prices have held within a $54.84–$56.85 range so far, reaching fresh five-year lows before geopolitical headlines generated brief recoveries. The setup continues to reflect a market dominated by oversupply concerns, with traders using geopolitical rallies to sell into strength rather than reprice the broader fundamental picture. Across the week, geopolitical risks, refinery outages, U.S. inventory data, OPEC+ policy decisions,…