Gift Holdings Inc. (TSE:9279) Just Released Its Annual Earnings: Here's What Analysts Think

It's been a good week for Gift Holdings Inc. (TSE:9279) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest full-year results, and the shares gained 6.2% to JP¥3,265. Revenues of JP¥36b were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at JP¥109, missing estimates by 3.2%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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After the latest results, the four analysts covering Gift Holdings are now predicting revenues of JP¥44.1b in 2026. If met, this would reflect a sizeable 23% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to leap 31% to JP¥143. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥44.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥146 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

View our latest analysis for Gift Holdings

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at JP¥3,975, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Gift Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥4,200 and the most bearish at JP¥3,800 per share. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Gift Holdings is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The period to the end of 2026 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 23% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 24% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 9.4% annually. So it's pretty clear that Gift Holdings is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Gift Holdings. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥3,975, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Gift Holdings going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Before you take the next step you should know about the 1 warning sign for Gift Holdings that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.