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    Does Refinancing Moves And Stake Trimming Change The Bull Case For HCA Healthcare (HCA)?

    Simply Wall St·12/17/2025 18:33:55
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    • Morgan Stanley previously downgraded HCA Healthcare from Equalweight to Underweight, and HCA later announced a senior notes offering to help refinance borrowings and support general corporate needs.
    • A large institutional holder, L1 Capital International Fund, has also reduced its position after strong share price appreciation, signalling a reassessment of risk‑reward at current levels.
    • Next, we’ll examine how concerns about potentially easing government healthcare tailwinds could reshape HCA Healthcare’s existing investment narrative.

    Find companies with promising cash flow potential yet trading below their fair value.

    HCA Healthcare Investment Narrative Recap

    To own HCA Healthcare, you need to believe that hospital demand, operational efficiency and capital allocation can offset policy and reimbursement uncertainty. The recent Morgan Stanley downgrade mainly reframes expectations around valuation and government program support, but does not appear to change the near term focus on volume growth and margin resilience as key catalysts, nor the central risk from evolving federal and Medicaid related policies.

    The most relevant update here is HCA’s senior notes offering, which the company plans to use in part to refinance borrowings. For investors, that sits alongside ongoing dividends and sizeable buybacks as another capital structure move to weigh against concerns that government healthcare tailwinds could ease and potentially affect how the market values HCA’s future earnings power.

    But while operations look solid today, shifting federal and Medicaid reimbursement trends are something investors should be aware of as they...

    Read the full narrative on HCA Healthcare (it's free!)

    HCA Healthcare’s narrative projects $85.4 billion revenue and $6.9 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 5.5% yearly revenue growth and about a $0.9 billion earnings increase from $6.0 billion today.

    Uncover how HCA Healthcare's forecasts yield a $477.70 fair value, in line with its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    HCA 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    HCA 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Five members of the Simply Wall St Community value HCA between about US$369 and US$900 per share, highlighting very different expectations. When you set that against concerns about potentially easing government healthcare support, it is worth comparing how multiple investors think those policy risks could affect HCA’s longer term earnings power.

    Explore 5 other fair value estimates on HCA Healthcare - why the stock might be worth as much as 92% more than the current price!

    Build Your Own HCA Healthcare Narrative

    Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.