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    Suncorp (ASX:SUN) Valuation After Major Queensland Storm Claims and Ongoing Share Buyback Program

    Simply Wall St·12/17/2025 04:33:53
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    Suncorp Group (ASX:SUN) is back in focus after late November storms generated more than 18,000 insurance claims in Queensland, with management flagging an estimated A$350 million net cost hitting its reinsurance cap.

    See our latest analysis for Suncorp Group.

    The A$350 million storm hit comes after a tough stretch for the stock, with a 1 month share price return of minus 9.31 percent and a year to date share price return of minus 22.86 percent. However, the 5 year total shareholder return of 130.36 percent shows that the longer term momentum has been strong.

    If this kind of event risk has you thinking more broadly about your portfolio, it could be a good time to explore fast growing stocks with high insider ownership as potential new ideas.

    With the shares now trading well below analyst targets and at an implied discount to intrinsic value, are investors looking at an undervalued franchise with resilient capital strength, or is the market already pricing in softer growth ahead?

    Most Popular Narrative: 23.2% Undervalued

    Robbo's narrative points to a materially higher fair value than Suncorp Group's last close of A$17.53, framing the stock as a discounted insurance pure play.

    As of 31 July 2024, Suncorp completed the sale of its banking division to ANZ, marking a significant strategic shift to become a pure-play insurance company. Almost a year into this transformation, it is worth reviewing how the business is shaping up ahead of the next reporting season. The sale of the banking business brought in approximately A$4.1 billion. A substantial portion of that was returned to shareholders through a $3.00 per share capital return and a fully franked $0.22 special dividend.

    Read the complete narrative.

    Curious how a streamlined insurer, mid single digit revenue growth and improving margins combine into a richer valuation story than the current share price implies?

    Result: Fair Value of $22.83 (UNDERVALUED)

    Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

    However, this outlook could unravel if claim costs from extreme weather spike faster than pricing or if competition forces heavier discounting in core personal lines.

    Find out about the key risks to this Suncorp Group narrative.

    Build Your Own Suncorp Group Narrative

    If this perspective does not quite match your own, or you want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a fresh view in just a few minutes: Do it your way.

    A great starting point for your Suncorp Group research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.