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    Will Okta's (OKTA) Profit Beat and Higher 2026 Outlook Shift Its Security-First Narrative?

    Simply Wall St·12/15/2025 12:15:59
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    • In the past quarter, Okta reported third-quarter revenue of US$742 million and net income of US$43 million, with earnings rising versus a year earlier and full-year fiscal 2026 revenue now guided to about US$2.91 billion.
    • Despite concurrent headlines about sophisticated phishing campaigns targeting Okta users, investors appear focused on the company’s improving profitability and cash-generation profile as it matures operationally.
    • We’ll now examine how Okta’s stronger profitability and updated revenue outlook influence its existing investment narrative around identity, compliance and AI security.

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    Okta Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Okta, you need to believe identity will remain central to security as companies juggle cloud, compliance and emerging AI threats. The key short term catalyst is management’s push toward sustained profitability, which the latest results support. The biggest risk is that rising attack sophistication and powerful platform rivals test Okta’s reputation and pricing power; this quarter’s phishing headlines appear more reputational than financial so far, but they keep that risk firmly in view.

    The most relevant update is Okta’s new fiscal 2026 revenue guidance of about US$2.91 billion, implying low double digit growth while turning profitable. That supports the thesis that identity remains a recurring spend category, but also underlines how much room competitors have to pressure growth if customers pivot to broader security suites or cheaper identity options over time.

    Yet even with better earnings, the growing threat of sophisticated attacks that target Okta’s role in authentication is something investors should be aware of...

    Read the full narrative on Okta (it's free!)

    Okta's narrative projects $3.6 billion revenue and $414.2 million earnings by 2028.

    Uncover how Okta's forecasts yield a $111.62 fair value, a 24% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    OKTA 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    OKTA 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Seven members of the Simply Wall St Community value Okta between US$105.65 and US$147.87 per share, showing a wide spread of expectations. You can weigh those views against Okta’s improving profitability catalyst and decide how much that matters for long term performance.

    Explore 7 other fair value estimates on Okta - why the stock might be worth as much as 64% more than the current price!

    Build Your Own Okta Narrative

    Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

    • A great starting point for your Okta research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
    • Our free Okta research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Okta's overall financial health at a glance.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.