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    The Bull Case For Waste Management (WM) Could Change Following Analyst Upgrades Ahead Of Earnings – Learn Why

    Simply Wall St·12/15/2025 01:15:02
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    • In recent weeks, Waste Management has seen improving sentiment as analysts raised earnings estimates and projected year-over-year growth ahead of its upcoming results.
    • Behind this optimism lies a view that the company’s near-term business health and profitability could strengthen, even as it contends with rising capital needs and margin pressures.
    • We’ll now examine how this analyst optimism ahead of earnings might influence Waste Management’s investment narrative built around technology-driven margin gains.

    Find companies with promising cash flow potential yet trading below their fair value.

    Waste Management Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Waste Management, you generally need to believe in a durable, cash generative waste and recycling business that can enhance margins through technology and sustainability investments. The recent uptick in sentiment ahead of earnings supports that view but does not materially change the key near term catalyst, which is execution on technology driven efficiency, or the biggest risk, which is rising capital intensity and pressure on free cash flow.

    Among recent announcements, the company’s decision on 27 October 2025 to trim full year revenue guidance toward the low end of its prior range stands out. Management cited weaker recycled commodity pricing and slightly softer WM Healthcare Solutions revenue, which matters because it directly intersects with the margin and cash flow pressures that could limit how quickly technology and sustainability investments translate into earnings growth.

    Yet behind the improving analyst sentiment, investors still need to keep a close eye on rising capital needs and the possibility that...

    Read the full narrative on Waste Management (it's free!)

    Waste Management's narrative projects $29.4 billion revenue and $4.0 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 7.0% yearly revenue growth and about a $1.3 billion earnings increase from $2.7 billion today.

    Uncover how Waste Management's forecasts yield a $246.52 fair value, a 14% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    WM 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    WM 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Ten fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span US$210 to US$246.52, underlining how far apart individual views can be. Against that backdrop, rising capital intensity and softer recycling economics give you a concrete reason to compare several of these perspectives before deciding how WM might fit in your portfolio.

    Explore 10 other fair value estimates on Waste Management - why the stock might be worth as much as 14% more than the current price!

    Build Your Own Waste Management Narrative

    Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.