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Fermi (FRMI) Is Down 33.4% After Anchor Tenant Nixes $150M Funding Pact – What's Changed

Simply Wall St·12/14/2025 19:18:28
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  • Fermi America disclosed that its prospective first tenant for the Project Matador AI campus in Texas terminated a US$150,000,000 Advance in Aid of Construction agreement, even though no funds had been drawn and lease negotiations are still ongoing.
  • At the same time, Fermi secured an Electric Service Agreement for up to 200 megawatts of grid power and advanced work on water‑saving cooling technology, underscoring that the project’s physical infrastructure is progressing even as anchor customer commitments remain uncertain.
  • With the funding agreement’s termination raising questions about tenant visibility, we’ll examine how this development reshapes Fermi’s investment narrative.

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What Is Fermi's Investment Narrative?

To own Fermi, you have to buy into a high‑risk build‑out story: a pre‑revenue, capital‑intensive power and AI campus that still needs long‑term customers to justify an 11 GW private grid. The termination of the US$150,000,000 construction advance tightens the spotlight on near‑term catalysts, shifting the focus from funding “optionality” back to concrete milestones like securing binding leases, firming up gas and nuclear project execution, and proving that 2026 power delivery is matched with contracted demand. The recent share price slump suggests the market now views tenant visibility and financing depth as more acute risks than before. On the positive side, the signed 200 MW Electric Service Agreement and progress on water‑saving cooling show that key physical and regulatory pieces of Project Matador are still moving forward.

However, one new risk now sits front and center that investors should not ignore. Fermi's share price has been on the slide but might be dropping deeper into value territory. Find out whether it's a bargain at this price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

FRMI 1-Year Stock Price Chart
FRMI 1-Year Stock Price Chart

Six fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community range from US$3.50 to US$35.00, underlining just how far apart individual expectations are. That spread sits against a business with no current revenue, heavy losses and a key US$150,000,000 funding agreement recently pulled, inviting you to weigh very different views on Fermi’s ability to convert its big infrastructure plans into durable tenant commitments.

Explore 6 other fair value estimates on Fermi - why the stock might be worth over 3x more than the current price!

Build Your Own Fermi Narrative

Disagree with this assessment? Create your own narrative in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

  • A great starting point for your Fermi research is our analysis highlighting 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
  • Our free Fermi research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Fermi's overall financial health at a glance.

No Opportunity In Fermi?

Early movers are already taking notice. See the stocks they're targeting before they've flown the coop:

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.