• 简

    • -+ 0.00%
    -+ 0.00%
    -+ 0.00%

    Why AeroVironment (AVAV) Is Down 14.1% After Cutting Profit Outlook Amid Record Defense Contracts

    Simply Wall St·12/14/2025 02:33:27
    语音播报
    • AeroVironment recently reported very large year-on-year revenue growth to US$472.51 million and raised its fiscal 2026 sales outlook, even as higher integration and operational costs pushed the company into a quarterly net loss and prompted a cut to full-year profit guidance.
    • At the same time, AeroVironment has secured multi‑year defense and security wins, including an up to US$874.26 million U.S. Army IDIQ and a US$4.8 million U.S. Coast Guard robotics contract, that reinforce its role as a key supplier of unmanned and autonomous systems despite current margin pressure.
    • We’ll now examine how record contract awards alongside weaker profitability and reduced earnings guidance reshape AeroVironment’s longer-term investment narrative.

    The latest GPUs need a type of rare earth metal called Terbium and there are only 37 companies in the world exploring or producing it. Find the list for free.

    AeroVironment Investment Narrative Recap

    To own AeroVironment, you have to believe demand for unmanned, autonomous and software-led defense systems will keep supporting its large backlog even as integration costs and weaker margins weigh on earnings. The key near term catalyst remains converting recent record contract awards into smoother, higher margin execution, while the biggest risk is that margin pressure from BlueHalo integration and operational issues persists longer than expected. The latest results and guidance cuts materially increase focus on that profitability risk in the short run.

    Among the flurry of announcements, the US$874.26 million U.S. Army IDIQ contract stands out because it directly underpins that backlog driven growth story, spanning core platforms like JUMP 20, P550, Puma, Raven and Titan C UAS. If AeroVironment can execute on this and similar awards while stabilizing gross margins, it would go some way toward easing current concerns about integration costs and lower earnings guidance.

    Yet while contracts are growing, investors should be aware that AeroVironment’s gross margin has already fallen sharply post BlueHalo and...

    Read the full narrative on AeroVironment (it's free!)

    AeroVironment's narrative projects $2.6 billion revenue and $264.5 million earnings by 2028. This requires 47.0% yearly revenue growth and about a $220.9 million earnings increase from $43.6 million today.

    Uncover how AeroVironment's forecasts yield a $404.00 fair value, a 69% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    AVAV 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    AVAV 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Eight fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span roughly US$203 to US$404 per share, showing how far opinions can spread. Set against AeroVironment’s sharply lower margins after the BlueHalo acquisition, this wide range underlines why you may want to compare several different views before deciding how those risks could affect future performance.

    Explore 8 other fair value estimates on AeroVironment - why the stock might be worth 15% less than the current price!

    Build Your Own AeroVironment Narrative

    Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

    Contemplating Other Strategies?

    Opportunities like this don't last. These are today's most promising picks. Check them out now:

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.