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    Does Barclays’ India-Focused Upgrade Change The Bull Case For Pernod Ricard (ENXTPA:RI)?

    Simply Wall St·12/14/2025 02:33:50
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    • Earlier this week, Barclays upgraded Pernod Ricard from “equal-weight” to “overweight,” citing the spirits group’s improved positioning in the U.S. and India alongside reduced exposure to China.
    • The bank’s more optimistic stance emphasizes emerging benefits from India’s trade agreement with the UK and long-term opportunities linked to new consumption patterns, including ride-hailing and robotaxis in Pernod Ricard’s largest market.
    • We’ll now examine how Barclays’ upgraded view, especially around India’s growing importance, may influence Pernod Ricard’s existing investment narrative.

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    Pernod Ricard Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Pernod Ricard, you need to believe its mix of premium brands can offset softness in mature markets through growth in places like India and other emerging economies. Barclays’ upgrade leans into that idea, but it does not remove the near term risk that weak demand and pricing power in the U.S. and China could still weigh on revenue and margins.

    Against this backdrop, Pernod Ricard’s reaffirmed medium term guidance for organic net sales growth of 3% to 6% a year and margin expansion takes on added importance, because it already assumes a tougher pricing environment and uneven demand across regions. Barclays’ focus on India and lower China exposure sits alongside that guidance, potentially giving investors more confidence in the company’s ability to hit those medium term targets despite near term headwinds.

    Yet, while India’s growth story is in focus, investors should not ignore the risk that prolonged weakness in the U.S. and China could...

    Read the full narrative on Pernod Ricard (it's free!)

    Pernod Ricard's narrative projects €10.8 billion revenue and €1.8 billion earnings by 2028. This implies a 0.4% yearly revenue decline and an earnings increase of about €0.2 billion from €1.6 billion today.

    Uncover how Pernod Ricard's forecasts yield a €100.89 fair value, a 32% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    ENXTPA:RI 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    ENXTPA:RI 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Eight members of the Simply Wall St Community currently see Pernod Ricard’s fair value between €80.30 and €149.48, underscoring how far opinions can spread. When you set those views against the risk of sustained weakness in key markets like the U.S. and China, it becomes even more important to compare several perspectives before deciding how this could affect the company’s long term performance.

    Explore 8 other fair value estimates on Pernod Ricard - why the stock might be worth as much as 96% more than the current price!

    Build Your Own Pernod Ricard Narrative

    Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.