Assessing Coterra Energy’s Valuation After Q3 Beat, Higher 2025 Output Targets and Ongoing Buybacks

Coterra Energy (CTRA) just reminded investors why it still deserves a spot on energy watchlists with Q3 results that topped production guidance, higher 2025 output targets, and steady free cash flow backing ongoing buybacks.

See our latest analysis for Coterra Energy.

The post earnings bounce that saw Coterra pop nearly 6% has cooled a bit, but a roughly 7.8% 90 day share price return and a 7.4% one year total shareholder return suggest momentum is still quietly building as deals like the new Permian microgrid partnership reinforce the long term cash flow story.

If Coterra’s mix of resilience and capital returns appeals to you, this could be a good moment to hunt for other energy names with similar qualities using fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

With analysts seeing double digit upside to today’s price and Coterra still trading below some intrinsic value estimates, is this a mispriced free cash flow machine, or is the market already discounting its next leg of growth?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 18.7% Undervalued

With Coterra closing at $26.27 versus a narrative fair value of $32.32, the story leans toward meaningful upside if the projections play out.

The deployment of advanced drilling and completion technologies, including successful wellbore redesigns, simul frac fleets, and longer laterals, has reduced per foot costs (notably a 12% YoY cost drop in the Permian) and improved capital efficiency, creating sustainable improvements in net margins and free cash flow.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see how steady growth, shifting margins, and a richer earnings multiple combine to justify that higher value? The narrative’s forecasts reveal the full blueprint.

Result: Fair Value of $32.32 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent gas price weakness or underperformance from key Permian and Marcellus wells could quickly undermine those optimistic cash flow and valuation assumptions.

Find out about the key risks to this Coterra Energy narrative.

Build Your Own Coterra Energy Narrative

If you see the story differently or would rather lean on your own homework, you can quickly build a personalized view in just minutes, Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Coterra Energy research is our analysis highlighting 5 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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