Vail Resorts, Inc. (NYSE:MTN) First-Quarter Results: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year

Shareholders of Vail Resorts, Inc. (NYSE:MTN) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 12% to US$162 following its latest first-quarter results. Despite revenues of US$271m falling 2.4% short of expectations, statutory losses of US$5.20 per share were well contained, and in line with analyst models. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, Vail Resorts' ten analysts currently expect revenues in 2026 to be US$3.01b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to dip 5.1% to US$7.07 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$3.01b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$6.87 in 2026. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

View our latest analysis for Vail Resorts

The consensus price target was unchanged at US$176, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Vail Resorts, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$237 and the most bearish at US$145 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Vail Resorts shareholders.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that Vail Resorts' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 1.5% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 11% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 11% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Vail Resorts.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Vail Resorts following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Vail Resorts' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Vail Resorts. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Vail Resorts going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Vail Resorts (1 is significant) you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.