Ignoring the stock price of a company, what are the underlying trends that tell us a business is past the growth phase? A business that's potentially in decline often shows two trends, a return on capital employed (ROCE) that's declining, and a base of capital employed that's also declining. This indicates to us that the business is not only shrinking the size of its net assets, but its returns are falling as well. So after glancing at the trends within Topsports International Holdings (HKG:6110), we weren't too hopeful.
Just to clarify if you're unsure, ROCE is a metric for evaluating how much pre-tax income (in percentage terms) a company earns on the capital invested in its business. The formula for this calculation on Topsports International Holdings is:
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
0.16 = CN¥1.6b ÷ (CN¥16b - CN¥6.4b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to August 2025).
Therefore, Topsports International Holdings has an ROCE of 16%. On its own, that's a standard return, however it's much better than the 9.1% generated by the Specialty Retail industry.
See our latest analysis for Topsports International Holdings
In the above chart we have measured Topsports International Holdings' prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you're interested, you can view the analysts predictions in our free analyst report for Topsports International Holdings .
We are a bit anxious about the trends of ROCE at Topsports International Holdings. To be more specific, today's ROCE was 23% five years ago but has since fallen to 16%. On top of that, the business is utilizing 28% less capital within its operations. The combination of lower ROCE and less capital employed can indicate that a business is likely to be facing some competitive headwinds or seeing an erosion to its moat. Typically businesses that exhibit these characteristics aren't the ones that tend to multiply over the long term, because statistically speaking, they've already gone through the growth phase of their life cycle.
To see Topsports International Holdings reducing the capital employed in the business in tandem with diminishing returns, is concerning. It should come as no surprise then that the stock has fallen 59% over the last five years, so it looks like investors are recognizing these changes. With underlying trends that aren't great in these areas, we'd consider looking elsewhere.
One more thing to note, we've identified 1 warning sign with Topsports International Holdings and understanding this should be part of your investment process.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.