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3 ASX Stocks That May Be Trading Up To 49.1% Below Intrinsic Value Estimates

Simply Wall St·12/11/2025 19:04:32
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The Australian stock market has faced challenges this year, with the ASX200 underperforming compared to a basket of its peers despite some sectors like materials and real estate showing resilience. In such an environment, identifying undervalued stocks can be crucial for investors seeking potential opportunities, as these stocks may offer value relative to their intrinsic worth amidst broader market fluctuations.

Top 10 Undervalued Stocks Based On Cash Flows In Australia

Name Current Price Fair Value (Est) Discount (Est)
Smart Parking (ASX:SPZ) A$1.33 A$2.26 41.3%
Ramelius Resources (ASX:RMS) A$3.81 A$7.17 46.8%
NRW Holdings (ASX:NWH) A$5.04 A$8.91 43.4%
Lynas Rare Earths (ASX:LYC) A$12.66 A$22.15 42.8%
LGI (ASX:LGI) A$3.95 A$7.77 49.2%
Guzman y Gomez (ASX:GYG) A$21.60 A$39.08 44.7%
Cromwell Property Group (ASX:CMW) A$0.47 A$0.86 45.6%
CleanSpace Holdings (ASX:CSX) A$0.63 A$1.11 43.1%
Bellevue Gold (ASX:BGL) A$1.435 A$2.82 49.1%
Airtasker (ASX:ART) A$0.33 A$0.63 48%

Click here to see the full list of 33 stocks from our Undervalued ASX Stocks Based On Cash Flows screener.

Let's dive into some prime choices out of the screener.

Bellevue Gold (ASX:BGL)

Overview: Bellevue Gold Limited is an Australian company involved in the exploration, development, mining, and processing of gold properties, with a market cap of A$2.12 billion.

Operations: The company's revenue segment is primarily focused on the exploration and evaluation of minerals and mine development, generating A$394.97 million.

Estimated Discount To Fair Value: 49.1%

Bellevue Gold is trading at A$1.44, significantly undervalued compared to its estimated fair value of A$2.82, and below fair value by over 20%. The company's revenue is forecast to grow at 17% annually, outpacing the broader Australian market. Bellevue Gold aims for increased ore grades with resumed development in Deacon North, a key high-grade area, supporting future profitability expected within three years despite past shareholder dilution.

ASX:BGL Discounted Cash Flow as at Dec 2025
ASX:BGL Discounted Cash Flow as at Dec 2025

Duratec (ASX:DUR)

Overview: Duratec Limited, with a market cap of A$475.73 million, provides assessment, protection, remediation, and refurbishment services for steel and concrete infrastructure assets in Australia.

Operations: The company's revenue segments include Energy (A$82.51 million), Defence (A$181.36 million), Buildings & Facades (A$111.87 million), and Mining & Industrial (A$136.65 million).

Estimated Discount To Fair Value: 13.8%

Duratec, trading at A$1.85, is undervalued compared to its fair value estimate of A$2.14 and trades 13.8% below this estimate. Earnings are projected to grow at 13.09% annually, surpassing the Australian market average of 12%. Recent strategic initiatives include seeking acquisitions and investments to enhance diversification and growth, supported by strong funding. Duratec's revenue growth forecast of 7.7% annually outpaces the broader market's expected rate of 5.9%.

ASX:DUR Discounted Cash Flow as at Dec 2025
ASX:DUR Discounted Cash Flow as at Dec 2025

SHAPE Australia (ASX:SHA)

Overview: SHAPE Australia Corporation Limited operates in the construction, fitout, and refurbishment of commercial properties across Australia with a market cap of A$485.83 million.

Operations: The company generates revenue of A$956.87 million from its heavy construction segment.

Estimated Discount To Fair Value: 28.8%

SHAPE Australia is trading at A$5.9, significantly below its estimated fair value of A$8.28, suggesting it is undervalued based on cash flows. The company's earnings grew by 31.9% last year and are forecast to increase by 15.4% annually, outpacing the Australian market's growth rate of 12%. Although revenue growth is slower at 9.9%, it still exceeds the market average of 5.9%. Recent M&A discussions could impact future valuations positively or negatively depending on outcomes.

ASX:SHA Discounted Cash Flow as at Dec 2025
ASX:SHA Discounted Cash Flow as at Dec 2025

Key Takeaways

  • Gain an insight into the universe of 33 Undervalued ASX Stocks Based On Cash Flows by clicking here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.