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    Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile (SQM) Is Up 5.4% After $2.7 Billion Lithium Expansion Plan With Codelco Announced - Has The Bull Case Changed?

    Simply Wall St·12/11/2025 17:33:55
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    • In recent months, Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile placed UF10 million in series S bonds for general corporate purposes and debt refinancing, while also reporting record third-quarter sales amid recovering demand and pricing.
    • At the same time, the company outlined a US$2.70 billion investment plan through 2027 to expand lithium carbonate capacity and deepen its partnership with state miner Codelco in the Atacama salt flat, underscoring an intensified focus on long-term lithium growth.
    • We’ll now examine how SQM’s US$2.70 billion capacity expansion and Codelco partnership plans reshape the company’s lithium-focused investment narrative.

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    Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile Investment Narrative Recap

    To own SQM, you need to believe that lithium will remain central to battery supply chains and that the company can convert its Atacama resource base into durable cash flows despite pricing volatility and rising state involvement. The US$2.70 billion expansion plan and Codelco partnership sharpen the short term catalyst around higher lithium volumes, but they also amplify the biggest current risk: heavy capital spending amid uncertain long term lithium pricing and regulatory outcomes.

    The recent UF10 million series S bond placement is particularly relevant here, as it supports both general corporate needs and refinancing while SQM commits to a multi year investment ramp. This additional funding flexibility sits alongside record third quarter sales and higher lithium demand, reinforcing the near term growth story but also increasing the importance of execution discipline on Salar Futuro and other major projects.

    Yet investors should be aware that heavier CapEx and a larger project pipeline could materially change SQM’s balance sheet resilience and risk profile if...

    Read the full narrative on Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile (it's free!)

    Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile's narrative projects $6.5 billion revenue and $1.9 billion earnings by 2028.

    Uncover how Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile's forecasts yield a $61.44 fair value, a 4% downside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    SQM 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    SQM 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Nine fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community range from US$31.62 to US$73.79, highlighting how far apart individual views can be. Against that wide spread, SQM’s plan to invest US$2.70 billion in lithium capacity and deepen its Codelco partnership could meaningfully influence future returns on capital, so it is worth weighing several perspectives before forming your own view.

    Explore 9 other fair value estimates on Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!

    Build Your Own Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile Narrative

    Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.