Stocks Settle Mixed Ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC Decision

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Tuesday closed down by -0.09%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) closed down by -0.38%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed up by +0.16%.  December E-mini S&P futures (ESZ25) fell -0.12%, and December E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQZ25) rose +0.10%.

Stock indexes gave up early gains and settled mixed on Tuesday as bond yields climbed after the Oct JOLTS report showed job openings unexpectedly rose to a 5-month high.  The market remains cautious about the pace of Fed easing beyond Wednesday’s decision, when the Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 bp.  The 10-year T-note yield rose +2 bp to 4.18%.

US Oct JOLTS job openings unexpectedly rose by +12,000 to a 5-month high of 7.670 million, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of a decline to 7.117 million.

US Sep leading indicators fell -0.3% m/m, right on expectations.

The markets this week will focus on government reports and the FOMC meeting.  On Wednesday, the Q3 employment cost index is expected to climb by +0.9%.  The results of the Tue/Wed FOMC meeting are expected to show a -25 bp cut in the federal funds target range to 3.50%-3.75%.  The markets will also look at the Fed's summary of economic projections and its dot-plot interest rate forecast.  In addition, post-meeting comments from Fed Chair Powell on Wednesday about the future direction of interest rates could move the markets.  On Thursday, weekly initial unemployment claims are expected to increase by +29,000 to 220,000. 

The markets are discounting a 90% chance of another -25 bp rate cut at the conclusion of the 2-day FOMC meeting on Wednesday.

Q3 corporate earnings season is drawing to a close as 495 of the 500 S&P companies have released results.  According to Bloomberg Intelligence, 83% of reporting S&P 500 companies exceeded forecasts, on course for the best quarter since 2021.  Q3 earnings rose +14.6%, more than doubling expectations of +7.2% y/y. 

Overseas stock markets settled mixed on Tuesday.  The Euro Stoxx 50 fell from a 3.5-week high and closed down -0.13%.  China’s Shanghai Composite closed down -0.37%.  Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 closed up +0.14%.

Interest Rates

March 10-year T-notes (ZNH6) on Tuesday closed down -5 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield rose +1.8 bp to 4.182%.  Mar T-note futures gave up an early advance and turned lower on Tuesday after the Oct JOLTS report showed job openings unexpectedly rose to a 5-month high, a hawkish factor for Fed policy.  Also, supply pressures weighed on T-notes as the Treasury auctioned $39 billion of 10-year T-notes.  However, losses in T-notes were limited due to solid demand for the $39 billion 10-year T-note auction, which had a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.55, above the 10-auction average of 2.54.

European government bond yields finished lower on Tuesday.  The 10-year German bund yield fell from an 8.5-month high of 2.879% and finished down by -1.2 bp to 2.850%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield fell by -2.3 bp to 4.505%.

German trade news was weaker than expected after German Oct exports rose +0.1% m/m, slightly weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m.  Also, Oct imports fell -1.2% m/m, weaker than expectations of -0.5% m/m.

Swaps are discounting a 1% chance for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at its next policy meeting on December 18.

US Stock Movers

Toll Brothers (TOL) closed down more than -2% to lead homebuilders lower after forecasting 2026 deliveries of 10,300 to 10,700, below the consensus of 10,843.  Also, Lennar (LEN) closed down more than -2%,  and D R Horton (DHI) and PulteGroup (PHM) closed down more than -1%. 

Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks moved higher on Tuesday as Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) rose more than +1%.  Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) closed up more than +12% after Citizens Jmp Securities LLC initiated coverage of the stock with an outperform recommendation and a $60 price target.  Also, Riot Platforms (RIOT) closed up more than +3%.  In addition, Strategy (MSTR) closed up more than +2%, and MARA Holdings (MARA) and Coinbase Global (COIN) closed up more than +1%. 

Silver mining stocks rose sharply on Tuesday after the price of COMEX silver soared to a new all-time high.  Hecla Mining (HL) closed up more than +7% and Newmont (NEM) closed up more than +5% to lead gainers in the S&P 500.  Also, Coeur Mining (CDE) closed up more than +5%. 

SLM Corp (SLM) closed down more than -14% after Compass Point Research & Trading LLC double-downgraded the stock to sell from buy with a price target of $23.   

Graphic Packaging Holding (GPK) closed down more than -8% after forecasting full-year net sales of $8.4 billion to $8.6 billion, the midpoint below the consensus of $8.56 billion.   

AutoZone (AZO) closed down more than -7% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after reporting Q1 comparable sales rose +5.50%, weaker than the consensus of +5.93%.  O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY) closed down more than -3% on the news to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100.

Caleres (CAL) closed down more than -5% after reporting Q3 adjusted EPS of 38 cents, well below the consensus of 85 cents. 

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) closed down more than -4% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials after CEO Lake said the bank anticipates spending $105 billion next year, higher than the consensus of $101.1 billion, driven by “volume- and growth-related expenses.”

Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings (OLLI) closed down more than -3% after reporting Q3 comparable sales rose +3.30%, weaker than the consensus of +3.74%.

Ares Management (ARES) closed up more than +7% after S&P Dow Jones Indices said the company will replace Kellanova in the S&P 500 before trading begins on Thursday, December 11.   

KeyCorp (KEY) closed up more than +3% after CEO Gorman said the bank agreed with activist investor HoldCo Asset Management that the stock is undervalued and has excess capital.

CVS Health (CVS) closed up more than +2% after raising guidance on its full-year adjusted EPS forecast to $6.60-$6.70 from a previous forecast of $6.55-$6.65, the midpoint stronger than the consensus of $6.63. 

Core & Main Inc (CNM) closed up more than +2% after reporting Q3 net sales of $2.06 billion, better than the consensus of $2.05 billion. 

Exxon Mobil (XOM) closed up more than +2% after it said it expects $35 billion in cash flow growth by 2030, an increase of about 17% from what it was projecting a year ago.

Viking Holdings Ltd (VIK) closed up more than +1% after Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a price target of $78. 

Otis Worldwide (OTIS) closed up more than +1% after BNP Paribas Exane upgraded the stock to outperform from neutral with a price target of $105.

Earnings Reports(12/10/2025)

Adobe Inc (ADBE), Chewy Inc (CHWY), Nordson Corp (NDSN), Oracle Corp (ORCL), Synopsys Inc (SNPS), Vail Resorts Inc (MTN). 

On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.