Meiji Holdings Co., Ltd. (TSE:2269) will pay a dividend of ¥52.50 on the 5th of June. This makes the dividend yield 3.1%, which is above the industry average.
Impressive dividend yields are good, but this doesn't matter much if the payments can't be sustained. Before making this announcement, Meiji Holdings was earning enough to cover the dividend, but it wasn't generating any free cash flows. No cash flows could definitely make returning cash to shareholders difficult, or at least mean the balance sheet will come under pressure.
Looking forward, earnings per share is forecast to rise by 8.3% over the next year. Assuming the dividend continues along recent trends, we think the payout ratio could be 64% by next year, which is in a pretty sustainable range.
Check out our latest analysis for Meiji Holdings
Even over a long history of paying dividends, the company's distributions have been remarkably stable. The annual payment during the last 10 years was ¥20.00 in 2015, and the most recent fiscal year payment was ¥105.00. This means that it has been growing its distributions at 18% per annum over that time. We can see that payments have shown some very nice upward momentum without faltering, which provides some reassurance that future payments will also be reliable.
Some investors will be chomping at the bit to buy some of the company's stock based on its dividend history. Unfortunately things aren't as good as they seem. Over the past five years, it looks as though Meiji Holdings' EPS has declined at around 5.4% a year. If the company is making less over time, it naturally follows that it will also have to pay out less in dividends. Earnings are predicted to grow over the next year, but we would remain cautious until a track record of earnings growth is established.
In summary, while it's always good to see the dividend being raised, we don't think Meiji Holdings' payments are rock solid. While the low payout ratio is a redeeming feature, this is offset by the minimal cash to cover the payments. This company is not in the top tier of income providing stocks.
Market movements attest to how highly valued a consistent dividend policy is compared to one which is more unpredictable. Still, investors need to consider a host of other factors, apart from dividend payments, when analysing a company. Taking the debate a bit further, we've identified 1 warning sign for Meiji Holdings that investors need to be conscious of moving forward. Is Meiji Holdings not quite the opportunity you were looking for? Why not check out our selection of top dividend stocks.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.