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To own Nintendo, you need to believe its core IP can keep pulling people back into the ecosystem across new hardware cycles, games and licensed products. The Kinder Joy Super Mario Collection fits neatly into that story: it will not move the needle on near term revenue by itself, but it extends Mario mindshare among kids and nostalgic adults at a time when Nintendo is preparing for the Switch 2 cycle and has just raised sales and profit guidance. That supports the near term catalyst of keeping engagement high ahead of new hardware and software launches. The bigger questions remain valuation, reliance on a few blockbuster franchises and whether earnings growth can justify a premium multiple after a strong multi‑year share price run.
But there is one concentration risk here that investors should not ignore. Nintendo's share price has been on the slide but might be up to 27% below fair value. Find out if it's a bargain.Five fair value views from the Simply Wall St Community range widely, from around ¥8,277 to almost ¥19,594, showing how differently individual investors see Nintendo’s upside. Set against recent guidance upgrades and expanding brand partnerships like Kinder Joy, that spread underlines why it can be useful to weigh several independent views before forming expectations about the company’s future performance.
Explore 5 other fair value estimates on Nintendo - why the stock might be worth as much as 65% more than the current price!
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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