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    How SEC-Cleared Treasury Platform At CME Group (CME) Has Changed Its Investment Story

    Simply Wall St·12/09/2025 11:12:09
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    • CME Group recently received SEC approval to register CME Securities Clearing Inc., a new securities clearing house designed to support mandated central clearing of U.S. Treasury and repo transactions ahead of the 2026–2027 compliance deadlines.
    • This move extends CME’s role deeper into core market plumbing, positioning it as a key provider of clearing infrastructure as regulatory requirements reshape U.S. fixed-income trading.
    • We’ll now examine how CME’s entry into SEC-regulated Treasury and repo clearing could influence its investment narrative around growth and risk.

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    CME Group Investment Narrative Recap

    To own CME Group, you generally need to believe in persistent global demand for centralized, regulated derivatives and clearing infrastructure. The new SEC approval for CME Securities Clearing strengthens that core infrastructure story, but it does not appear to change the key near term swing factor: how trading volumes respond to volatility in interest rate and equity markets. The most immediate risk still sits with potential periods of subdued market activity and fee pressure rather than this specific clearing development.

    Among recent announcements, the mixed Q3 2025 results are most relevant, as they underline how sensitive CME’s performance remains to clearing and transaction fees even as market data revenue grows. Against that backdrop, expanding into SEC regulated U.S. Treasury and repo clearing fits into a broader effort to deepen CME’s role in core market plumbing, but it also raises questions about competitive intensity and pricing power in a changing market structure.

    However, investors should also be aware that prolonged periods of lower volatility could still...

    Read the full narrative on CME Group (it's free!)

    CME Group's narrative projects $7.3 billion revenue and $4.3 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 4.4% yearly revenue growth and about a $0.6 billion earnings increase from $3.7 billion today.

    Uncover how CME Group's forecasts yield a $285.12 fair value, a 5% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    CME 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    CME 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Five members of the Simply Wall St Community now value CME between US$197 and US$285 per share, underscoring how far opinions can diverge. You should weigh those views against the reliance on interest rate and equity futures volumes, which could have broader implications for CME’s earnings profile over time.

    Explore 5 other fair value estimates on CME Group - why the stock might be worth as much as 5% more than the current price!

    Build Your Own CME Group Narrative

    Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.