Long term investing can be life changing when you buy and hold the truly great businesses. While not every stock performs well, when investors win, they can win big. To wit, the Bharat Dynamics Limited (NSE:BDL) share price has soared 741% over five years. If that doesn't get you thinking about long term investing, we don't know what will. But it's down 7.0% in the last week. But note that the broader market is down 0.8% since last week, and this may have impacted Bharat Dynamics' share price. Anyone who held for that rewarding ride would probably be keen to talk about it.
While this past week has detracted from the company's five-year return, let's look at the recent trends of the underlying business and see if the gains have been in alignment.
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
During five years of share price growth, Bharat Dynamics achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 16% per year. This EPS growth is slower than the share price growth of 53% per year, over the same period. So it's fair to assume the market has a higher opinion of the business than it did five years ago. And that's hardly shocking given the track record of growth. This optimism is visible in its fairly high P/E ratio of 79.75.
The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
We're pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. It's always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. This free interactive report on Bharat Dynamics' earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for Bharat Dynamics the TSR over the last 5 years was 792%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
It's good to see that Bharat Dynamics has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 17% in the last twelve months. And that does include the dividend. However, that falls short of the 55% TSR per annum it has made for shareholders, each year, over five years. Potential buyers might understandably feel they've missed the opportunity, but it's always possible business is still firing on all cylinders. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Bharat Dynamics better, we need to consider many other factors. Like risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Bharat Dynamics (of which 1 is a bit unpleasant!) you should know about.
If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: many of them are unnoticed AND have attractive valuation).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Indian exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.