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To own American Express, you need to believe its premium, experience-led model can keep attracting affluent and younger cardmembers while justifying higher fees and rewards costs. The latest results and raised 2025 guidance support that thesis and appear to reinforce, rather than change, the near term catalyst of continued premium fee and spending growth. The biggest risk remains that richer perks and rising competition in premium cards push variable customer engagement expenses higher than revenue over time.
The most relevant recent announcement here is American Express’s upgraded 2025 outlook, now calling for 9% to 10% revenue growth and EPS of US$15.20 to US$15.50. That guidance leans on strong early traction from higher Platinum fees, expanded perks, and younger cardmember additions, all of which tie directly into the premium growth story that bullish investors are watching as a key support for future earnings and fee income.
Yet beneath the premium story, investors should also be aware of the growing pressure from rising reward costs and richer benefits packages that could...
Read the full narrative on American Express (it's free!)
American Express' narrative projects $85.7 billion revenue and $13.5 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 10.6% yearly revenue growth and a $3.5 billion earnings increase from $10.0 billion today.
Uncover how American Express' forecasts yield a $351.87 fair value, a 3% downside to its current price.
While the latest premium focused wins look strong, remember the most pessimistic analysts were already baking in slower growth, with revenue near US$80.3 billion and earnings around US$12.2 billion by 2028, and they worry that decelerating travel and entertainment spend plus rising rewards costs could still prove their caution closer to the mark.
Explore 7 other fair value estimates on American Express - why the stock might be worth as much as $366.63!
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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