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    Does Citigroup’s New Buy Rating Signal Durable Delaware Basin Advantages For Matador Resources (MTDR)?

    Simply Wall St·12/09/2025 00:31:14
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    • Earlier this month, Citigroup initiated coverage on Matador Resources with a new Buy rating, joining a field of 21 brokerage firms that collectively rate the company as Outperform.
    • This fresh coverage underscores how Matador’s upstream oil and gas operations are drawing increased institutional attention within the broader energy extraction landscape.
    • We’ll now explore how Citigroup’s new Buy rating may influence Matador’s existing investment narrative built around Delaware Basin growth.

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    Matador Resources Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Matador Resources, you need to believe its concentrated Delaware Basin footprint and growing midstream platform can keep translating strong production into durable free cash flow, despite commodity and regulatory uncertainty. Citigroup’s new Buy rating adds to existing broker optimism but does not materially change the near term catalyst, which still centers on executing efficiently on high capital intensity projects, or the key risk of being heavily exposed to a single producing region.

    The recent decision to raise the quarterly dividend to US$0.375 per share, taking the annual payout to US$1.50, is the announcement that most closely complements Citigroup’s attention. It reinforces an investment case that now leans more on consistent cash returns alongside disciplined Delaware Basin development, even as high ongoing spending requirements leave Matador sensitive to weaker prices or any slowdown in midstream volume growth.

    But against this backdrop of expanding operations and rising payouts, investors should also be aware of the concentrated Delaware Basin risk that...

    Read the full narrative on Matador Resources (it's free!)

    Matador Resources' narrative projects $4.3 billion revenue and $840.5 million earnings by 2028. This requires 7.2% yearly revenue growth and an $12.6 million earnings decrease from $853.1 million today.

    Uncover how Matador Resources' forecasts yield a $58.72 fair value, a 32% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    MTDR 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    MTDR 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Five members of the Simply Wall St Community see Matador’s fair value anywhere between US$30 and about US$123, underscoring how far opinions can spread. When you set those views against Matador’s capital intensive Delaware Basin growth plans, it becomes even more important to compare different assumptions about cash flow resilience and regional risk.

    Explore 5 other fair value estimates on Matador Resources - why the stock might be worth 32% less than the current price!

    Build Your Own Matador Resources Narrative

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.