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    The Bull Case For LandBridge (LB) Could Change Following $500M Senior Notes Refinancing Transaction

    Simply Wall St·12/08/2025 01:13:10
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    • On November 25, 2025, LandBridge subsidiary DBR Land Holdings LLC completed a private placement of US$500,000,000 in 6.250% senior notes due 2030, using the net proceeds and borrowings under a new revolving credit facility to repay and terminate its prior credit facility with US$370,200,000 outstanding as of September 30, 2025.
    • This refinancing reshapes LandBridge’s capital structure by replacing bank debt with long-dated senior notes governed by restrictive covenants and guarantees from all existing subsidiaries, potentially affecting future leverage, financing flexibility, and cash flow allocation.
    • Next, we’ll examine how refinancing bank borrowings with long-dated senior notes could influence LandBridge’s investment narrative and future financing flexibility.

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    LandBridge Investment Narrative Recap

    To own LandBridge, you need to believe its Permian land, water and infrastructure can keep attracting high value, long term users across energy and digital infrastructure. The new US$500,000,000 senior notes shift risk toward higher fixed interest costs but add term visibility, and do not appear to change the key near term swing factors: timing of new project ramp up and concentration in the Permian.

    The recent US$0.10 per share quarterly dividend declaration is the most relevant companion to this refinancing, because it highlights the balance LandBridge is trying to strike between current cash returns and funding long dated growth projects. Together with the bond issue, it frames how much financial flexibility the company retains if project timelines slip or Permian activity slows.

    Yet behind the longer debt maturity and steady dividends, investors should still be aware that...

    Read the full narrative on LandBridge (it's free!)

    LandBridge's narrative projects $321.7 million revenue and $184.1 million earnings by 2028. This requires 27.2% yearly revenue growth and about a $118.8 million earnings increase from $65.3 million today.

    Uncover how LandBridge's forecasts yield a $74.50 fair value, a 25% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    LB Community Fair Values as at Dec 2025
    LB Community Fair Values as at Dec 2025

    Six fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span roughly US$50 to just over US$98 per share, showing a very wide spread of views. When you set those opinions against LandBridge’s reliance on long lead time projects before they contribute to EBITDA, it underlines why you may want to weigh several different outlooks on future execution and risk.

    Explore 6 other fair value estimates on LandBridge - why the stock might be worth 16% less than the current price!

    Build Your Own LandBridge Narrative

    Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.