Is It Too Late To Consider Lattice Semiconductor After Its 2025 AI Driven Rally?

• Wondering if Lattice Semiconductor at around $78.85 is still a smart buy after its big run, or if the easy money has already been made? You are not alone. That is exactly what we are going to unpack.
• The stock has climbed 12.3% over the last week, 24.9% over the past month, and is up 40.9% year to date, on top of a strong 36.7% gain over the past year and 86.0% over five years. This naturally raises questions about how much upside is left versus downside risk.
• Recent bullishness has been fueled by growing enthusiasm around Lattice's low power FPGA solutions, its role in AI and edge computing infrastructure, and a steady drumbeat of design win announcements with major OEMs. Investors are increasingly treating the company as a high quality way to gain exposure to long term semiconductor and AI trends, which is helping push the valuation conversation to the forefront.
• Despite the excitement, Simply Wall St's valuation model currently gives Lattice Semiconductor a valuation score of 0/6, meaning it does not screen as undervalued on any of their checks. Next we will walk through the different valuation approaches investors are using today and then finish with a more holistic way to think about what the stock is really worth.

Lattice Semiconductor scores just 0/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: Lattice Semiconductor Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow model estimates what a business is worth by projecting the cash it can generate in the future and then discounting those cash flows back into today’s dollars.

For Lattice Semiconductor, Simply Wall St uses a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach. The company generated around $128.4 Million in free cash flow over the last twelve months, and analysts expect this to climb meaningfully over time. Projections step up to about $204.6 Million in 2026 and $249.2 Million in 2027, with further annual increases extrapolated by Simply Wall St out to 2035, rather than being based solely on published analyst estimates.

When all these projected free cash flows are discounted back to today, the model arrives at an intrinsic value of roughly $31.09 per share. Compared with a current share price near $78.85, that implies the stock is about 153.6% above the DCF estimate, suggesting it screens as materially overvalued on this metric.

Result: OVERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Lattice Semiconductor may be overvalued by 153.6%. Discover 906 undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Lattice Semiconductor.

Approach 2: Lattice Semiconductor Price vs Sales

For profitable, growing chip companies like Lattice Semiconductor, the Price to Sales (P/S) ratio is a useful way to compare how much investors are paying for each dollar of revenue, especially when earnings can be volatile due to heavy R&D and investment cycles.

In general, higher growth and stronger competitive positioning can justify a higher P/S multiple, while greater risk or slower growth usually call for a lower, more conservative multiple. Lattice currently trades on a rich 21.79x P/S, which is well above the broader Semiconductor industry average of about 5.47x and also significantly higher than its peer group average of roughly 11.47x.

To go beyond simple comparisons, Simply Wall St uses a proprietary Fair Ratio, which estimates what a reasonable P/S multiple should be given Lattice’s growth outlook, profitability, industry, market cap and risk profile. For Lattice, this Fair Ratio comes out at 9.02x. This is more informative than just lining the stock up against peers, because it adjusts for company specific strengths and weaknesses rather than assuming every semiconductor name deserves the same multiple.

When you set the current 21.79x P/S against the 9.02x Fair Ratio, Lattice screens as materially overvalued on this metric.

Result: OVERVALUED

PS ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1442 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Lattice Semiconductor Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, a simple framework on Simply Wall St’s Community page where you connect your story about Lattice Semiconductor to a concrete forecast for its future revenue, earnings and margins, and then to your own fair value, compare that fair value to today’s price to decide whether to buy, hold, or sell, and watch it update dynamically as new news, earnings, or guidance arrives; for example, one investor might build a bullish Lattice Narrative anchored to strong AI and edge demand with a fair value near the higher analyst target of about $72, while a more cautious investor, focused on competition and cyclicality, could land closer to the lower end near $52, and Narratives makes both perspectives transparent, quantified, and easy to act on.

Do you think there's more to the story for Lattice Semiconductor? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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