How Record Guyana and Permian Output Plus Dividend Hike Will Impact Exxon Mobil (XOM) Investors

• Recently, Exxon Mobil posted strong quarterly operating cash flow, lifted its quarterly dividend to US$1.03 per share, and reported record production in Guyana and the Permian Basin, while also pausing its Baytown blue hydrogen project due to weak commercial interest and exploring a potential purchase of Lukoil’s majority stake in Iraq’s West Qurna 2 oilfield, pending U.S. approval.
• Analyst coverage initiated by UBS with a positive stance, combined with Exxon's continued dividend growth and record output from key assets, underscores how operational execution and capital discipline are shaping the company’s evolving balance between traditional hydrocarbons and lower-carbon initiatives.
• We’ll now examine how Exxon's record Guyana and Permian production reshapes its existing investment narrative and longer-term risk‑reward profile.

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Exxon Mobil Investment Narrative Recap

To own Exxon Mobil, you generally need to believe that its core oil and gas assets in Guyana and the Permian can keep generating strong cash flows while the company cautiously scales lower carbon projects. The latest quarter of solid operating cash flow and record production supports that near term volume story, while the pause of the Baytown blue hydrogen project highlights that execution risk in low carbon solutions remains a key overhang rather than a new, company changing catalyst.

Among the recent updates, the dividend increase to US$1.03 per share stands out as most relevant. It directly ties Exxon's record Guyana and Permian output, plus its capital discipline, to ongoing cash returns, which many shareholders see as central to the near term catalyst of sustaining buybacks and a rising income stream, even as the company refocuses its lower carbon efforts after stepping back from Baytown blue hydrogen.

But while cash returns look resilient today, investors should still pay close attention to the long term demand risks around Exxon’s heavy reliance on Permian and Guyana production...

Read the full narrative on Exxon Mobil (it's free!)

Exxon Mobil's narrative projects $338.3 billion revenue and $39.7 billion earnings by 2028. This implies a 0.8% yearly revenue decline and an earnings increase of about $8.7 billion from $31.0 billion today.

Uncover how Exxon Mobil's forecasts yield a $128.72 fair value, a 10% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Ten members of the Simply Wall St Community currently estimate Exxon Mobil’s fair value between US$124 and US$285 per share, reflecting a wide spread of views. Against that backdrop, Exxon's record Guyana and Permian production, alongside its recalibration of low carbon projects, gives you several different earnings and risk paths to weigh before forming your own view.

Explore 10 other fair value estimates on Exxon Mobil - why the stock might be worth just $124.00!

Build Your Own Exxon Mobil Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Exxon Mobil research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Exxon Mobil research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Exxon Mobil's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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