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华尔街日报Restrained SFR Acquisitions Continue Impacting Multifamily and Retail Sectors
It’s not news that fewer people are buying homes. It’s also not news that the reasons include higher interest rates on mortgages and the continued uptick in home prices.
As a result, “based on Freddie Mac income-to-loan ratios, only about 28% of U.S. households can qualify for mortgages on a median-priced home,” said John Chang, Marcus & Millichap’s Vice President. Additionally, potential buyers are balking at paying the extra expenses that homebuying entails, said Chang on a recently released video, “How Restrained Homebuying is Influencing CRE.”
The reduction in potential homeowners is obviously impacting the multifamily sector. The reluctance to buy also influences retail.
The Direct Factor—Multifamily
Chang explained that the homeowner affordability gap, combined with stringent mortgage underwriting standards, has led to a higher multifamily renter retention rate. Specifically, “the current renewal rate stands at 55%, well above the long-term average,” Chang said. “That’s contributing to the sturdy demand for apartment housing that has driven net absorption.”
He added that the tapering of single-family and multifamily construction levels means home prices will likely continue to rise. As a result, demand for multifamily rental housing is expected to continue expanding over the next several years.
The Indirect Factor—Retail
Additionally, home sales (or lack thereof) also bleed into retail real estate.
Chang noted that approximately 7% of total retail sales consist of home-related products, such as those from Home Depot and Lowe’s. Also in the mix are lighting and “furniture stores, and even general merchandise stores like Target and Walmart, where many people purchase small appliances and other home-related products,” Chang said.
There is also a direct correlation between home sales and home-related retail sales. As a result, sales from these particular stores “will likely remain range-bound until mortgage rates fall,” Chang observed. Still, despite this, vacancy rates at lifestyle and power centers were 4.7% in Q3 2025, which is similar to that of grocery-anchored and unanchored retail centers and single-tenant retail properties.
Chang concluded the video by forecasting that elevated housing costs and barriers to home ownership will likely persist. That, in turn, “will support demand for apartment rental housing and keep home-related retail sales stable until mortgage rates meaningfully decline,” he said.
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