Does Celsius Still Offer Value After Its 32.2% Pullback And Strong 2025 Outlook?

• Wondering if Celsius Holdings is still a smart buy after its big run, or if the fizz has finally come out of the can? This breakdown will help you decide if the current price really makes sense.
• Over the last week the stock has inched up 1.1%, but that comes after a sharp 32.2% pullback over the past month, even though it is still up 50.1% year to date and 40.5% over the last year.
• Those swings have come as investors reassess high growth consumer names and rotate between momentum and quality, making sentiment around names like Celsius more volatile. At the same time, the company continues to benefit from strong brand buzz and distribution expansion that have kept it front and center in the energy drink space.
• Despite the excitement, Celsius only scores a 2/6 valuation score, which means it screens as undervalued on just two of six checks. We will walk through what different valuation methods say about that gap, and then finish with a more intuitive way to think about what the market might really be pricing in.

Celsius Holdings scores just 2/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: Celsius Holdings Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what a business is worth by projecting its future cash flows and discounting them back to today, adjusting for risk and the time value of money.

For Celsius Holdings, the latest twelve month Free Cash Flow sits at about $522 Million. Analysts and extrapolated estimates see this climbing steadily, with projections reaching around $911 Million of Free Cash Flow by 2035 as the brand scales and margins expand. Simply Wall St uses a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model, which blends detailed near term analyst forecasts with a slower, more mature growth phase further out.

When all these future cash flows are discounted back to today, the model suggests a fair value of roughly $68.78 per share. That implies the current market price is about 40.6% below this estimate, which indicates potential upside if these growth assumptions occur.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Celsius Holdings is undervalued by 40.6%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 935 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Celsius Holdings.

Approach 2: Celsius Holdings Price vs Sales

For fast growing, brand driven businesses like Celsius that are still reinvesting heavily, the Price to Sales (P S) ratio is often more useful than earnings based metrics because it focuses on the scale and monetisation of revenue before accounting for management decisions about spending.

In general, higher growth and lower perceived risk justify a higher normal P S multiple, while slower growth or greater uncertainty usually pull that multiple down. Celsius currently trades at about 4.95x sales, which is more than double the Beverage industry average of roughly 2.30x and also above the peer group average of about 2.29x. This reflects the market premium for its growth profile and brand strength.

Simply Wall St also calculates a Fair Ratio of 3.69x, which is the P S multiple that would typically be expected given Celsius Holdings growth outlook, margins, industry, market cap and risk profile. This is more tailored than a simple comparison to peers or the industry because it adjusts for the company specific mix of strengths and risks. When set against the current 4.95x, the Fair Ratio suggests the stock is trading at a richer valuation than its fundamentals alone would warrant.

Result: OVERVALUED

PS ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1441 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Celsius Holdings Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, a simple tool on Simply Wall St’s Community page that lets you turn your view of Celsius Holdings into a clear story that links the business, a financial forecast and a fair value. It then continuously updates that story as new news or earnings arrive, so you can quickly compare your Fair Value to the current price and decide whether it looks like a buy or a sell. You can also see how different investors can reasonably land far apart, from a more cautious view that might lean closer to the recent bearish target of about $33.50 per share, to a more optimistic view that lines up with the bullish $80.00 target, all based on their own assumptions for revenue growth, margins and long term earnings power.

Do you think there's more to the story for Celsius Holdings? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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