According to Fitch Ratings, the asset performance outlook for about half of the North American structured finance industry is “deteriorating” in 2026, while the outlook for the rest of the structured finance industry is “neutral.” Against the backdrop of uncertainty about trade policies and tariffs, labor market pressure and cost of living pressure will continue, leading to a deterioration in asset performance. Some high-quality industries will be under pressure, and low-income and non-high-quality borrowers are still vulnerable to the macroeconomic slowdown. Borrowers of high-quality housing mortgage-backed securities are still more able to cope with the impact of economic pressure. However, due to high living costs and ongoing labor market pressure, Fitch expects the performance of poor credit quality borrowers and restructuring loans to deteriorate in 2026. Fitch anticipates that commercial mortgage-backed securities asset performance in the office, hotel, and retail sectors will deteriorate in 2026. Reasons include peak office default rates, declining consumer confidence and spending, weak demand, and rising capital and operating costs.

According to Fitch Ratings, the asset performance outlook for about half of the North American structured finance industry is “deteriorating” in 2026, while the outlook for the rest of the structured finance industry is “neutral.” Against the backdrop of uncertainty about trade policies and tariffs, labor market pressure and cost of living pressure will continue, leading to a deterioration in asset performance. Some high-quality industries will be under pressure, and low-income and non-high-quality borrowers are still vulnerable to the macroeconomic slowdown. Borrowers of high-quality housing mortgage-backed securities are still more able to cope with the impact of economic pressure. However, due to high living costs and ongoing labor market pressure, Fitch expects the performance of poor credit quality borrowers and restructuring loans to deteriorate in 2026. Fitch anticipates that commercial mortgage-backed securities asset performance in the office, hotel, and retail sectors will deteriorate in 2026. Reasons include peak office default rates, declining consumer confidence and spending, weak demand, and rising capital and operating costs.