Computer 2026 Strategy Released! Shenwan Hongyuan announced the list of core beneficiaries of the AI outbreak

According to Wind data, since the beginning of 2025, the computer sector has grown by 18%, ranking 12th in the entire industry. It combines fundamental-driven and thematic investments. The main lines mainly include the three major directions of AI computing power, physical intelligence, and AI application.

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Shen Wan Hongyuan and Huang Zhonghuang's team released the 2026 computer strategy. The overall view is that computing power will gather and become a tower, and applications will take advantage of the trend.

According to the report's opinion:

Looking at the market review, fundamentals are building a foundation and AI is catalyzing the rise in the AI industry chain with the release of DeepSeek at the beginning of the year. DeepSeek represents model equity, balance between performance and cost, and the domestic AI software and hardware boom is booming. From March to early September, the inflection point of AI applications has yet to be reached, and overall performance is lackluster. The progress of domestic AI applications fell short of expectations, compounded by tariffs, and returned to fundamental valuations; after May, the annual report verified that the overall fundamentals of the industry stabilized. Some leading companies performed steadily and brilliantly, and valuations increased along with the market. After September, the market within the sector was divided, and the market favored high-performing stocks, and the overall sector experienced stagnant growth.

Looking at the performance review, there was an inflection point in fundamentals, and net profit rebounded first. In the first three quarters of 2025, the computer sector's revenue and net profit all showed a rebound trend. The fundamental inflection point of the industry was confirmed. Among them, the rebound in net profit exceeded revenue. The main reason is that cost reduction and efficiency measures such as optimizing the personnel structure in 2024 were prioritized in 2025.

Judging from the valuation review, the PE valuation level is high, and PS/PCF still has room for the future. On December 2, 2025, the computer industry PE (TTM) was 85.4x, in the historical fraction of 90.60%, while PS (TTM) was 3.6x, at the historical level of 54.80%, and PCF (TTM) was 46.6x, at the historical 14.30% level. The current valuation level has surpassed the 2023 valuation high, reflecting the market's optimistic expectations of potential profit margins. The computer industry's PE (TTM) high was 90x in 2020 and 70x in 2023. Shen Wan Hongyuan believes that in the future, with the gradual recovery of the macroeconomy, AI application catalysts, etc. will enhance the company's profitability and bring financial returns, and there is still room for PS and PCF indicators that can more intuitively reflect the company's business conditions. It is expected that in 2026, the valuation of the computer industry will be digested by performance and further increased in market value.

Big model: The gap between the big models between China and the US has narrowed, moving from simple performance improvement to commercial implementation. Model: In 2025, the overall iteration rate of the global big model slowed down, and the gap between the big models in China and the US narrowed rapidly. It is expected that the gap will be further narrowed and even surpassed in some fields by 2026. Domestic innovation: The training paradigm for large models not only pursues scaling, but also seeks a better balance between performance, efficiency, and cost. It is expected that in 2026, the big model iteration will follow the following three directions: model development and interpretation: 1) breaking through long context bottlenecks; 2) multi-modal, world models; 3) mid-training, interleaved thinking.

Computing power: 1) The trend of supernodes is clear. Domestic computing power has improved overall performance through supernodes, and has differentiated advantages in engineering; 2) AI Infra has increased in importance, focusing on the software layer where market size and penetration rate are rapidly increasing; 3) quantum computing has begun to move towards commercialization, and 25H2 has achieved breakthroughs in many quantum technologies.

Application: Industry transformation is a moat, and software enters the optimal layout period. In the future, China's AI paradigm is human-robot co-driving, and it is difficult for models to replace software with customized characteristics. After iterating the model, it gained better long-term context capabilities, ready for deeper applications. A large number of companies accounted for more than 10% of AI revenue, and the software industry ushered in the “best hitting point” brought about by technological innovation. I'm optimistic about the robot's big brain, agents, marketing/office/financial AI, etc.

Digital economy leader: Hikvision (002415.SZ) +Jinshan Office+Hang Seng Electronics+Central Control Technology+Desai Xiwei+Qimingchen+iFLY+Huada Jiutian+ Tonghuashun+Guanglianda+New Continent

AIGC Applications: Jinshan Office (688111.SH) +Dingjie Digital Smart+Seiyou Co., Ltd. +Tonghuashun+Donghuashun+ArcSoft Technology+Wanxing Technology+Runda Medical+iFLY+iFLYTEK

AIGC computing power: Wave Information (000977.SZ) +Haiguang Information+Shenzhou Digital+Zhongke Shuguang+Cambrian

Data elements: Seiyou Co., Ltd. (603171.SH) +Boss Software+Radio and Television Transport+Tolsi+Jiuyuan Yinhai

The core targets of Hong Kong stocks: China Software International (00354) +Kingdee International (00268) +China Civil Aviation Information Network (00696) +Lenovo Group (00992)