Gold Miners: Who Needs AI and Bitcoin?

Editor's note: Any and all references to time frames longer than one trading day are for purposes of market context only, and not recommendations of any holding time frame. Daily rebalancing ETFs are not meant to be held unmonitored for long periods. If you don't have the resources, time or inclination to constantly monitor and manage your positions, leveraged and inverse ETFs are not for you.

Gold and gold miner stocks are at a potential inflection point after a blistering run so far in 2025. The S&P 500* is up roughly 16.5% year to date through November 3, but the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index* has exploded 113.2% over the same stretch, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices and MarketVector Indexes*.

That gap highlights just how much miners have acted as a leveraged play on bullion’s surge—beating even 2025’s two favorite manias: AI and Bitcoin.

Gold hit a record $4,300 an ounce in October before cooling off, boosted by geopolitical tension, Fed pivot hopes, and a softening dollar. But traders know the drill: when volatility spikes, so does opportunity. Miners can move faster, and cut deeper, than gold itself.

Below is a daily chart of the MarketVector™ Global Gold Miners Index, as of November 3, 2025.

Source: MarketVector Indexes, November 3, 2025.

The performance data quoted represents past performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

From here, traders are wondering if gold miners are simply pausing for breath after such a strong push, or if a sharper correction is in the cards. Bulls and bears can both point to potential catalysts to back up their respective cases.

Why Bulls Like Gold Miners

• Strong Earnings and Cash Flow: Majors like Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. (Ticker: AEM) and Newmont Corporation (Ticker: NEM) recently reported solid third‐quarter results, driven by record bullion prices. Agnico reaffirmed full-year guidance while exiting debt and building net cash, Investing News Network reports.

• Gold Could Continue to Roll: Gold is up nearly 50% in 2025 and could extend the run into 2026 amid central-bank purchases, expected Fed cuts, and a weaker dollar, according to Morgan Stanley analysts.

• Room to Run in an Under-owned Sector: The gold miner space remains modestly represented in portfolios, meaning fresh flows could accelerate the move.

• Miners are Leveraged to Gold Prices: Mining equities often move more than the metal itself thanks to fixed costs and operational leverage—for good or bad.

Traders leaning bullish might consider Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bull 2X Shares (Ticker: NUGT), which seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, of 200% of the performance of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (GDMNTR)*. For those looking for a bullish play on the sector’s small caps, Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bull 2X Shares (Ticker: JNUG) seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, of 200% of the performance of the MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index (MVGDXJTR).

Bearish Catalysts for Gold Miners

• Too Hot? Too Fast? After huge gains in 2025, further weakness to digest the gains wouldn’t exactly come as a surprise. The sector may be overvalued and the recent pullback “represented a natural market response after mining stocks had substantially outpaced gold's own impressive performance,” Discovery Alert reports.

• What if Rate Cuts Don’t Come? The gold rally has relied on declining real rates and a weak dollar; if the Fed holds firm, the momentum could stall.

• Operational and Geopolitical Risks: Even with strong metal prices, miners face disruption risks, including royalty hikes, safety issues, and permitting delays.

Traders anticipating downside might look to Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bear 2X Shares (Ticker: DUST), which seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, of 200% of the inverse (or opposite) of the performance of the NYSE Arca Gold Mingers Index (GDMNTR). For small caps, the Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bear 2X Shares (Ticker: JDST) seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, of 200% of the inverse of the performance of the MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index (MVGDXJTR).

Golden Opportunity or Fool’s Gold?

With gold miners having surged and valuations stretched, the next leg higher depends heavily on gold’s trajectory, influenced by real rates, the dollar, and central-bank buying. Traders should watch major earnings updates, flows into mining-oriented funds, and whether inflation* and interest-rate signals shift. The leverage inherent to mining stocks means gains could accelerate—but losses may bite just as fast. In short, the upside potential remains, but so does the risk of a sharp unwind.

* Definitions and Index Descriptions

An investor should carefully consider a Fund’s investment objective, risks, charges, and expenses before investing. A Fund’s prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about the Direxion Shares. To obtain a Fund’s prospectus and summary prospectus call 866-476-7523 or visit our website at direxion.com. A Fund’s prospectus and summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing.

The MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index (MVGDXTR) is a rules-based, modified capitalization-weighted, float-adjusted index intended to give investors a means of tracking the overall performance of companies that are involved primarily in the gold and silver mining industry as defined by MarketVector Indexes^TM GmbH.

The MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index (MVGDXJTR) tracks the performance of foreign and domestic micro-, small- and mid-capitalization companies that generate, or demonstrate the potential to generate, at least 50% of their revenues from, or have at least 50% of their assets related to, gold mining and/or silver mining, hold real property or have mining projects that have the potential to produce at least 50% of the company’s revenue from gold or silver mining when developed, or primarily invest in gold or silver.

The NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (GDMNTR) is a modified market capitalization weighted index comprised of publicly traded companies that operate globally in both developed and emerging markets, and the index provider defines as involved primarily in mining for gold and, to a lesser extent, in mining for silver. The Index will limit the weight of companies whose revenues are more significantly exposed to silver mining to less than 20% of the Index at each rebalance date. The Index may include small- and mid-capitalization companies and foreign issuers. One cannot directly invest in an index.

The Funds do not invest directly in or directly short gold or gold futures contracts.

Direxion Shares Risks – An investment in a Fund involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. A Fund is non-diversified and includes risks associated with the Fund’s concentrating its investments in a particular industry, sector, or geography which can increase volatility. The use of derivatives such as futures contracts and swaps are subject to market risks that may cause prices to fluctuate over time.

Leverage Risk – Each Fund obtains investment exposure in excess of its net assets by utilizing leverage and may lose more money in market conditions that are adverse to its investment objective than a fund that does not utilize leverage. A total loss may occur in a single day. Leverage will also have the effect of magnifying any differences in the Fund’s correlation or inverse correlation with the Index and may increase the volatility of the Fund.

Daily Index Correlation Risk – A number of factors may affect the Bull Fund’s ability to achieve a high degree of correlation with the Index and therefore achieve its daily leveraged investment objective. The Bull Fund’s exposure to the Index is impacted by the Index’s movement. Because of this, it is unlikely that the Bull Fund will be perfectly exposed to the Index at the end of each day. The possibility of the Bull Fund being materially over- or under-exposed to the Index increases on days when the Index is volatile near the close of the trading day.

Daily Inverse Index Correlation Risk – A number of factors may affect the Bear Fund’s ability to achieve a high degree of inverse correlation with the Index and therefore achieve its daily inverse leveraged investment objective. The Bear Fund’s exposure to the Index is impacted by the Index’s movement. Because of this, it is unlikely that the Bear Fund will be perfectly exposed to the Index at the end of each day. The possibility of the Bear Fund being materially over- or under-exposed to the Index increases on days when the Index is volatile near the close of the trading day.

Gold and Silver Mining Company Risk – Gold and silver mining companies are highly dependent on the price of gold and silver bullion, respectively, and may be adversely affected by a variety of worldwide economic, financial and political factors.

Mining and Metal Industry Risk – Mining and metal companies can be significantly affected by international political and economic developments, energy conservation, the success of exploration projects, commodity prices, taxes and government regulations.

Additional risks of each Fund include Effects of Compounding and Market Volatility Risk, Market Risk, Counterparty Risk, Rebalancing Risk, Intra-Day Investment Risk, Other Investment Companies (including ETFs Risk), Cash Transaction Risk, Passive Investment and Index Performance Risk and for the Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bear 2X Shares and the Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Bear 2X Shares, Shorting or Inverse Risk. Please see the summary and full prospectuses for a more complete description of these and other risks of a Fund.

ALPS Distributors, Inc.