Hong Kong Stock Concept Tracking | The coal storage capacity of US power plants has declined further, and institutions are optimistic about 2026 investment opportunities in the coal sector (with concept stocks)

The Zhitong Finance App learned that coal prices rose more than expected after the October holiday season.

Expectations of contraction driven by reverse internal circulation in coal supply continued after the holiday season. Marginal factors were rainfall in production areas and maintenance of the Daqin Line. Imported coal may have declined sequentially due to Mongolian political factors. The market, on the other hand, is worried that supply will continue to shrink in the fourth quarter. However, the main variable for the increase in prices exceeding expectations is on the demand side. On the one hand, the enthusiasm for purchasing downstream power plants has increased, and the increase in the number of ship anchorages in Qin Port has led to a decrease in the ratio of cargo ships. On the other hand, downstream electricity consumption is rising rapidly, so prices are rising rapidly.

Guosheng Securities released a research report. According to EIA forecasts, US coal consumption in 2025 is expected to be 439 million tons, up 6.7% year on year. Furthermore, the coal storage capacity of US power plants is expected to decline further. By the end of 2025, coal stocks in US coal-fired power plants are expected to fall to the level of 107 million short tons. Low inventory combined with explosive demand growth and supply rigidity that continues to decline in production are expected to drive the US coal market and coal prices to usher in a historic reversal opportunity.

With the explosive growth in US domestic coal consumption, US coal exports are expected to slow down, and global offshore dynamic coal trade may enter a tight balance pattern. It is recommended to focus on domestic coal companies with location and cost advantages.

Zhongtai Securities released a research report saying that trading and fundamentals resonate, coal may usher in a new cycle. It is optimistic about investment opportunities in the coal sector in 2026, and suggests grasping the three main lines in terms of investment. Based on the continued entry of medium- to long-term capital into the market, the “high dividend and undervaluation” investment value of coal is further highlighted, and targets with strong dividend attributes are actively allocated; based on the company's own production capacity growth logic, the focus is on the expected benefits of alpha and beta resonance; based on coal prices bottoming out and profit improvement, coking coal, which focuses on reversing the difficult situation, is expected to benefit.

Hong Kong stocks in the coal-related industry chain:

China Coal Energy (01898), Yankuang Energy (01171), China Shenhua (01088), Yancoal Australia (03668), China Qinfa (00866), etc.