Century Aluminum (CENX) Is Down 10.9% After Glencore Sells 9 Million Shares in Block Trade - Has The Bull Case Changed?

• In early November 2025, Glencore, Century Aluminum's largest shareholder, sold 9,000,000 shares in an overnight block trade handled by Morgan Stanley, reducing its stake to about 43% and raising approximately US$276 million in gross proceeds.
• This move signaled a decrease in large shareholder commitment and prompted market focus on the potential effects of significant secondary offerings on future company ownership and governance.
• We'll explore how Glencore's sizable stake reduction impacts Century Aluminum's investment narrative and its future business outlook.

Find companies with promising cash flow potential yet trading below their fair value.

Century Aluminum Investment Narrative Recap

To be a Century Aluminum shareholder today, you generally need to believe the company can capitalize on rising domestic aluminum demand, supported by trade protections and production expansion projects like the Mt. Holly restart. Glencore's recent sale reduces a large shareholder presence but does not materially alter near-term catalysts, which remain focused on U.S. aluminum premiums and stable tariff policy, while execution risk around expansion remains the largest watchpoint.

The extension of the Mt. Holly power agreement through 2031 stands out, given its direct tie to one of Century's most important growth projects and its effect on production costs and capacity expansion. This operational announcement reinforces the company's focus on U.S. supply chain self-sufficiency, a key driver behind the current bullish narrative, though capital investment and project timelines will be closely scrutinized by the market.

However, investors should also be aware that future earnings still face uncertainty if U.S. trade policy shifts or energy costs rise unexpectedly …

Read the full narrative on Century Aluminum (it's free!)

Century Aluminum's narrative projects $3.0 billion revenue and $479.3 million earnings by 2028. This requires 7.6% yearly revenue growth and a $367.9 million earnings increase from $111.4 million today.

Uncover how Century Aluminum's forecasts yield a $36.00 fair value, a 25% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Simply Wall St Community fair value estimates for Century Aluminum range from US$22.13 to US$68.18 based on 3 different analyses. While some see major upside, the wide range highlights uncertainty that remains amid key risks like execution on expansion projects and sensitivity to policy changes; you can compare these diverse viewpoints for yourself.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Century Aluminum - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!

Build Your Own Century Aluminum Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Century Aluminum research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Century Aluminum research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Century Aluminum's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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