How Weak Q3 Results and Guidance at Nomad Foods (NOMD) Has Changed Its Investment Story

• Nomad Foods Limited recently reported third quarter 2025 earnings, showing sales of €752.4 million and net income of €57.6 million, both down compared to the previous year, alongside weaker results for the first nine months.
• The company provided updated full-year guidance, anticipating performance near the lower end of its already reduced forecasts, which highlights ongoing challenges with revenue growth and profitability.
• We'll examine how the company’s cautious outlook and declining sales may impact confidence in Nomad Foods’ future growth narrative.

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Nomad Foods Investment Narrative Recap

To be a shareholder in Nomad Foods, you have to believe that the company’s turnaround plan, including cost controls, product innovation, and margin improvement, can offset the headwinds from weak revenue growth, margin pressure, and intense competition. The recent lowering of full-year guidance following another quarter of declining sales is a material setback, as it puts the most important short-term catalyst, restoration of revenue momentum, under scrutiny and raises risk around management’s execution abilities.

The company’s updated earnings guidance, signaling results near the bottom of its already trimmed forecasts, is the most relevant announcement. This guidance reinforces concerns around sustained gross margin pressure and highlights how unforeseen challenges, like inflation or operational missteps, can disrupt even the best-laid plans to spark a growth recovery or drive sustainable profitability.

In contrast, investors should be aware of the risk posed by repeated downward revisions to guidance and the effect this has on confidence…

Read the full narrative on Nomad Foods (it's free!)

Nomad Foods is projected to reach €3.2 billion in revenue and €297.8 million in earnings by 2028. This outlook is based on a forecasted annual revenue decline of 1.0% and an earnings increase of €86.3 million from the current earnings of €211.5 million.

Uncover how Nomad Foods' forecasts yield a $18.79 fair value, a 54% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Nine different fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community range from €16 to €44.85 per share. While many see significant undervaluation, persistent guidance downgrades may limit the company’s ability to regain earnings growth and restore investor trust, see how others view this outlook.

Explore 9 other fair value estimates on Nomad Foods - why the stock might be worth just $16.00!

Build Your Own Nomad Foods Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Nomad Foods research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Nomad Foods research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Nomad Foods' overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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